There have been no new vote announcements in over an hour. At this point, anyone making an announcement will probably wait until tomorrow morning (such as Solomon Ortiz, a key “Stupak curious” member who will hold a press conference tomorrow morning). There appears to have been a Friday afternoon rush to make the news while people were still paying attention.
Currently, I have ten “yes to no” votes, and seven “no to yes” votes. That would mean the leadership needs two more “no to yes” votes to pass the bill.
Eight or nine of “yes to no” votes are Stupak bloc: Cao, Carney, Costello, Donnelly, Driehaus, Lipinski, Rahall, and Stupak. Lynch might even be in that group, too. Additionally, Berry, Dahlkemper, Kaptur and Ortiz are still “Stupak curious,” potential members of the bloc.
The Stupak bloc is the only obstacle to passing the bill at this point. Pelosi and Stupak talked for ten minutes today. Additionally, Jeffery Young reports a cryptic, if still worrying sign:
Pro-choice female Dems are shuttling in and out of Pelosi’s office and they won’t say why.
Rep. Diana DeGette says “we’re not happy.”
At the same time, there are still enough undecided votes to pass the bill without the Stupak bloc. Further, some members of the Stupak bloc might be wavering, such as Rahall, Costello and Cao. Yet further, I agree with Nate Silver that “there’s perhaps also a half-Stupak (face-saving BS to get 2-3 votes).” We don’t have to break the whole Stupak bloc, just two or three of them. And it is possible that can be done with bullshit rather than caving.
One idea is that anyone who is a “no” on this bill, and who voted against the Stupak amendment, should receive the most pressure. This means Adler, Arcuri, Boucher, Herseth Sandlin, Kissell, Kratovil, McMahon, and Minnick. These eight could put an end to Stupak’s influence, once and for all, but they choose not to do so.